A discreet seasonal decline between October and November is normal, although the 10% decrease is a little greater than normal. The inherent account, though, are one of market circumstances holding steady and the CML does not expect this position to alter a great deal in the coming months.
In the CML monthly market commentary released, CML economist Paul Samter states: “There is little reason to anticipate much underlying change in the coming months. There could be a modest decline in underlying house buying activity in early 2010 due to the stamp duty holiday ending, with activity “bunching” over the last few months of 2009. But seasonal factors are likely to be the dominant driver over the next few months.
“There has been a modest increase in the availability of mortgage credit recently, including some tentative signs of a few higher LTV products emerging. But there is no sign of a swift recovery in lending volumes, especially with remortgaging set to remain at subdued levels while low interest rates persist.”
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